The biblical parable of the talents contains a timely warning for the gold market. In the story the master distributes his wealth between three servants. The first and the second put their capital to work in businesses and generate healthy profits. The third, scared of losses, buries his share in the ground.
How much more “emerging” have the emerging markets left to do? Probably not much, given the vast amount of capital and hope invested in the asset class already.
Disaster reveals national character in the starkest possible way. Japan’s response to the unprecedented triple blow of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown has demonstrated both its strengths and weaknesses – to the world and perhaps to the Japanese themselves.
“When my mother was 10, she was evacuated to Sendai and saw the whole town get bombed flat. My father experienced the big air-raids on Yokohama. Their generation started out when there was nothing left of Japan but smoking ruins. Don’t worry about us – we’ll definitely recover this time too.”
“What most likely happened was pedal misapplication.” So concluded an official of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the US body which has just published its report on the spate of accidents involving Toyota cars.
Who has survived the global credit crisis in the best shape? As Chou En Lai said about the impact of the French Revolution, it’s still too early to judge. The snap verdict that China is the big winner and the US and rest of the old G7 are big losers is already looking questionable.
Serious sport, according to George Orwell, is war minus the shooting. In the words of Bill Shankly, legendary manager of Liverpool F.C., football is not a matter of life and death; it’s much more important than that.
Emerging markets used to be known as markets you couldn’t emerge from in an emergency. History is littered with examples of financial disasters in young fast-growing countries, from the Argentinian default of the 1890s to the Asian crisis of the mid-1990s.
By orchestrating a massive appreciation of the yen in the mid 1980s, the US condemned Japan to decades of stagnation and ended the challenge to its own economic hegemony. Effectively Japan was forced to commit financial hara-kiri.
The Japanese are doing it again. The Koreans prefer to do it when nobody’s watching. The Chinese are at it brazenly and, like everything else they do, on an enormous scale. The Swiss tried it, without much success.