By orchestrating a massive appreciation of the yen in the mid 1980s, the US condemned Japan to decades of stagnation and ended the challenge to its own economic hegemony. Effectively Japan was forced to commit financial hara-kiri.
There are not many financial assets that are priced higher today than before the Lehman shock in September 2008. Two that have done investors proud are the yen and gold bullion.
Imagine you are starring in the financial equivalent of the “Life On Mars” TV show. You wake up one morning to find you have time-travelled back to the early nineteen nineties. The Berlin Wall has just fallen. The triumph of capitalism is unleashing a tsunami of globalization as billions of people join the market economy as workers and consumers.
John Veals is the villainous hedge fund manager in Sebastian Faulks’ best-selling credit-crunch novel “A Day In December.” He is a man with no friends, no culture, no interest in anything other than making money. His nefarious machinations lead to the failure of a major British bank, enabling him to make huge profits from his short positions. Other characters in the novel include Gabriel Northwood, a virtuous lawyer, and Roger Malpasse, a retired banker of the old school.
Di-worsification is what you do when you invest in mediocre assets for a mediocre reason – for example, because a statistical model has told you they reduce risk. Thanks to the boom in commodities over the past decade, they have become a favoured choice for di-worsifying institutions everywhere. The profusion of ETFs, funds, indices, and brokerage coverage has made them unprecedentedly easy to access for individuals too. However the long-term performance of commodities is pathetic, and there is little reason to believe that “this time is different.”
How did the people who sighted the first black swan respond to the shock? After the collapse of the assumption that all swans were white, did they then conclude that swans could be any colour – red, green, or blue?
Emerging markets, it seems, have had a good crisis. In contrast to the debt-ridden G7 economies, they have quickly resumed their growth trajectory. No surprise, then, that US emerging market mutual funds are experiencing record inflows. The stellar performance of the Brics markets – Brazil, Russia, Indian and China – is due to continue into the distant future.
Remember the fable of the hard-working ant and the irresponsible fun-loving grasshopper? As generations of parents tell their children, both creatures get what they deserve. The grasshopper pays a terrible price for his summer of fun, while the ant survives the winter snug and smug.
Twelve months on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers and much about the event remains mysterious. It was the trigger that caused a deep recession, which began in the US but steadily crept across Europe and Asia, morphing into a global catastrophe worthy of a potboiler novel.
A notable phenomenon of this past year of living dangerously in financial markets has been the triumph of the ultra-bears. Deeply pessimistic commentators such as Nourel Roubini who were previously unknown or had only niche followings have been propelled to rock star status.